A coupled version of the Department of Defense model used for predicting tropical cyclones began running operationally at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) Sept. 15.

DoD forecasters use output from the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS-TC) to forecast wind speed and intensity of tropical cyclones, as well as speed and direction of movement. The original COAMPS-TC was the DoD's first operational non-hydrostatic, tropical cyclone prediction system and is one of the world's top-performing tropical cyclone models.

"Coupled COAMPS-TC improves our tropical cyclone prediction significantly over the uncoupled version," said Capt. R. Russell Smith, commanding officer, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. "This increases fleet safety and allows commanders to take full advantage of the physical battlespace."

Another coupled version of COAMPS, an improved air-ocean model that more accurately predicts the weather and ocean environment in support of Navy and joint forces, began running at FNMOC last month.

COAMPS, upgraded with air-ocean coupling with the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), began running operationally for the Hawaii and Central and Northern California regions Aug. 10. The coupling allows for better modeling the energy transfer between ocean and atmosphere.

"This coupling of ocean and atmosphere domains allows us to treat the Earth like the interconnected system that it really is and will significantly improve the accuracy of our predictions," said Rear Adm. Tim Gallaudet, oceanographer of the Navy and commander of the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command. "The Navy needs this more than ever to secure every possible advantage over our increasingly capable competitors."

Along with the newly-added (or coupled) NCOM Ocean component, COAMPS includes both atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems which use millions of observations from a number of platforms -- aircraft, ships, buoys, satellites, ocean gliders and other data sources -- to improve initial model conditions and forecast skill. A non-hydrostatic, atmospheric model component allows the model to solve complicated equations associated with small-scale weather features such as thunderstorms.

Before the air/ocean coupling, the Navy used the atmospheric components of the COAMPS model for short-term (up to 72 hours) operational numerical weather prediction with separate runs of NCOM.

COAMPS and COAMPS-TC were developed by research meteorologists in the Naval Research Laboratory's (NRL) Marine Meteorology Division and NRL Oceanography Division through engagement with operational meteorologists from the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command.

Advances in the understanding of boundary-layer physics and improved computer-modeling science are key drivers behind the coupling of the models.

Commander, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command directs and oversees the collection, processing and exploitation of accurate, relevant and timely oceanographic, meteorological, hydrographic, precise time and astrometric information. CNMOC is assigned as CTG 80.7 under U.S. Fleet Forces Command and is part of the information warfare community. It consists of approximately 2,500 globally distributed personnel.

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