The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) recently participated in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) annual Tropical Cyclone Conference, which brought together scientific and operational meteorology leaders from around the globe to discuss the latest advances in tropical cyclone (TC) analysis, forecasting and modeling.

“JTWC is an active participant in the worldwide scientific community’s efforts to understand and predict tropical cyclones," said Cmdr. R. Corey Cherrett, commanding officer of JTWC. "Gathering together so many scientists of different focus areas along with forecasters and operators under one roof helps us share perspectives and techniques. This shapes research and operational efforts along with keeping my forecasters abreast of the latest developments in the tropical cyclone research world.”

While JTWC forecasts for Department of Defense (DoD) bases and assets in the western Pacific, south Pacific and Indian Oceans, it also works closely with partners to advance research to operations in order to improve forecast accuracy and tropical cyclone readiness for impacted communities globally.

JTWC partners with the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. CIMSS provides satellite-derived wind vectors to diagnose the environment surrounding a tropical cyclone, and has developed a variety of automated satellite-based intensity estimation techniques that provide the forecaster with additional information on which to base their intensity decision in real-time. CIMSS is also automating several time-intensive diagnostic worksheets at JTWC to save time for forecasters and geophysical technicians.

The Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), located at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colo., has also developed data processing techniques to aid the forecaster in real time. CIRA produces a rapid intensity index that is incorporated into the JTWC multi-model intensity consensus when conditions are favorable. CIRA personnel continually refine a statistical-dynamical approach to TC forecasting based on environmental factors, called SHIPS- Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme- used around the world by different forecasting agencies.

There were multiple presentations from the Office of Naval Research, Naval Research Laboratory-Monterey, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, and the Naval Postgraduate School, which support a broad range of JTWC services from basic atmospheric research up to development and operationalizing systems such as the Navy’s mesoscale coupled ocean-atmospheric model, the TC Web microwave satellite imagery site, and the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system.

One student from the Air Force Institute of Technology worked on a technique to relate structural features in microwave imagery to tropical cyclone intensity, and can now take that knowledge to her next duty station- conveniently, JTWC.

JTWC scientists and personnel presented statistics about the performance of the multi-model track and intensity consensus that combines multiple different externally generated model forecasts. The composition of JTWC’s multimodel consensus changes every year as model performance is scrutinized after the fact for accuracy. JTWC also discussed projections for aging satellite losses and the impact that will have on tropical cyclone fixes, which are often the only source of position and intensity estimation for JTWC in its large and data-sparse area of responsibility (AOR) in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.  

 “Naval Oceanography relies on a variety of civilian and military-produced models to predict everything from tropical cyclones to ocean currents, which impact every facet of naval operations,” said Lt. Dave Price, operations officer of JTWC. “Each model has strengths and weaknesses according to how it solves the equations that are the foundation of meteorology and oceanography, so averaging the models eliminates outliers. On the annual scale, consensus outperforms any individual model, although the forecaster’s discernment is required to evaluate each case and how models are capturing that particular situation.”

A new two-week tropical cyclone formation outlook product developed at JTWC and launched last year for DoD customers was also discussed. The two-week outlook analyzes environmental conditions, intraseasonal oscillations and climatology, to give a longer lead time before tropical cyclogenesis than does the current “invest” system at JTWC, which requires a pre-existing disturbance to track the likelihood of TC formation within 96 hours.

The applications of forecast science and uncertainty for emergency management personnel were also discussed. Meteorological personnel from various Western Pacific bases shared their experiences managing tropical cyclone condition of readiness (TCCOR) procedures, utilizing the data provided, and maintaining lines of communication between the subject matter expert TCCOR recommenders, JTWC forecasters, and the higher-ranking TCCOR decision makers.

Representatives from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Pacific Region also discussed tropical cyclone readiness for civilian populations in Micronesia that use JTWC’s TC forecasts; elsewhere in the AOR, JTWC forecasts only apply to DoD assets, and civilians receive warnings through their particular responsible civilian forecast agency.

JTWC (Task Element 80.7.7.1) is jointly staffed by U.S. Navy and Air Force personnel and falls under the operational control of Commander, Task Group 80.7/Commander, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command via Fleet Weather Center San Diego (Task Unit 80.7.7). U.S. Air Force personnel are administratively assigned to the 17th Operational Weather Squadron, a subordinate squadron of the 1st Weather Group and the 557th Weather Wing.

JTWC provides tropical cyclone reconnaissance, forecast, warning and decision support services for operational advantage to U.S. government agencies operating in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Navy personnel at JTWC also provide tsunami advisory information and recommendations to shore installations and units, as well as impact forecasts for U.S. Pacific Fleet’s airborne Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance and decision support services to U.S. Pacific Command and its subordinate commands.

Get more information about the Navy from US Navy facebook or twitter.

For more news from Joint Typhoon Warning Center, visit www.navy.mil/.